Change in supply and demand pattern of electrolyti

2022-06-22
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Changes in the supply and demand pattern of electrolytic aluminum analysts said that the supply side reform of the main battlefield of investment in the second half of the year spread to the electrolytic aluminum industry, greatly limiting production capacity and driving up the price of electrolytic aluminum. Since June, the share price of electrolytic aluminum concept stocks has been rising continuously. After the sharp rise in the share price of listed aluminum companies, many institutional analysts are still firmly optimistic about electrolytic aluminum prices and electrolytic aluminum plates

eye-catching performance

since June, Shenhuo shares, Nanshan aluminum, China national color Corporation, Western Mining Corporation, Yunnan Aluminum Corporation, Zhongfu industry, Jiaozuo Wanfang, Minmetals rare earth and Minmetals Corporation have increased by 86.96%, 19.05%, 23.17%, 43.18%, 63.96%, 33.99%, 23.23% and 51.91% respectively. Over the same period, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 5.39% and the Shenzhen Composite Index rose 6.13%. The performance of electrolytic aluminum listed companies far exceeded the market

on the other hand, it is the performance of these companies. In 2016, Chalco achieved a total profit of about 1.66 billion yuan, an increase of 11 times compared with the same period of the previous year. In the first quarter of 2017, the net profit was 390million yuan, an increase of 20.68 times compared with the same period of the previous year. The semi annual performance forecast of Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd. shows that the profit is 150million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 194%, and the profits of other enterprises are also satisfactory

however, it is worth noting that analysts continue to be bullish on the electrolytic aluminum market. Li Bo, an analyst at Huatai Securities, believes that with the acceleration of the illegal capacity inventory of electrolytic aluminum, the market's trust in the aluminum supply side reform is bullish on electrolytic aluminum. Ju Guoxian, an analyst at GF nonferrous metals, also said that if the electrolytic aluminum industry carries out supply side reform, it will have an important impact on the supply side, change the supply and demand pattern, promote the rise of aluminum prices, improve industry profits, and continue to recommend the electrolytic aluminum sector

limiting production capacity

since the beginning of this year, various ministries, commissions and provinces have successively issued production restriction policies. In March, the Ministry of environmental protection, the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of finance, the national energy administration and Beijing 3) after the end of the experiment, the people's governments of Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanxi, Shandong and Henan recently issued the 2017 work plan for the prevention and control of air pollution in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and surrounding areas, The core is to strengthen the control of air pollution channels in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. Among them, 26+2 cities need to stagger the peak production in the heating season. The production of electrolytic aluminum is limited by more than 30% (calculated by stopping the electrolytic cell), the production of alumina is limited by 30% (calculated by the production line), all carbon products that do not meet the standard are stopped, and the production of enterprises that meet the carbon standard is limited by more than 50% (calculated by the production line)

in April, the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the Ministry of land and resources and the Ministry of environmental protection jointly issued the notice on the special action work plan for cleaning up and rectifying the illegal electrolytic aluminum industry, which is a major test project for the production technology of lightweight packaging materials (Document No. 656), and decided to complete the cleaning up and rectification of illegal electrolytic aluminum projects in six months. After the notice was issued, the people's Government of Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture of Xinjiang announced to stop three 2million ton electrolytic aluminum projects under construction in violation of regulations

following Xinjiang, on July 28, the Shandong provincial government proposed that from November 15, 2017 to March 15, 2018, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, carbon and other industries that meet the emission standards should be limited to more than 30%, about 30% and more than 50% (calculated by production line), and those that fail to meet the corresponding emission standards or limit requirements should be shut down

as of july2017, the national electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 38.36 million tons, with 11.52 million tons in Shandong (accounting for 30% of the country). Ju Guoxian, a nonferrous metals analyst at GF Securities (18.00 +0.28%, consulting stock), estimates that assuming that all production capacities meet the emission limit requirements, the implementation of the plan by the Shandong provincial government will reduce Shandong's electrolytic aluminum output by 860000 tons and aluminum oxide output by 1850000 tons

according to the statistics of Asian metals, as of July, the supply side reform of electrolytic aluminum has affected the production capacity of 3.95 million tons. If the capacity of the supply side reform reaches 3million tons hr15t to 5million tons, after deducting part of the zombie capacity and the limited production in the heating season, the supply is expected to tend to a tight balance corresponding to the demand of about 35million tons in 2017, and even the supply may fall short of demand

price rise

from the beginning of 2016 to the present, the price of electrolytic aluminum has increased from 10000 yuan/ton to about 14000 yuan/ton. In the same period, the price of alumina has increased by 1000 yuan/ton, and the price of coal has increased by 350 yuan/ton, resulting in an increase of 3733 yuan/ton in the cost of electrolytic aluminum in the same period. It can be seen that the increase in aluminum price is mainly driven by the cost, and the profit of the electrolytic aluminum industry has not fundamentally improved

however, the positive impact of the supply side reform on the price of electrolytic aluminum is the focus of market attention.

Ju Guoxian believes that, following the No. 656 document, aluminum enterprises in Xinjiang and Shandong frequently reported production cuts. Considering that the supply side reform will enter the stage of special spot check and the arrival of the 2+26 production restriction scheme in the fourth quarter, the non-conforming production capacity will be further withdrawn, the supply contraction and supply-demand structure will be improved, and it is expected that the aluminum price will continue to rise

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